The Rubicon That Must Be Crossed by the "Anyone But Hillary" Crowd

There exists on the left a certain sentiment of "Anyone But Hillary."  In this era of party unity, it isn't talked about much, but it is obvious from the Daily Kos straw poll that she is not an exciting candidate for a good segment of the Democratic Party.

Recently, Markos Moulitos wrote in the Washington Post:


In person, Clinton is one of the warmest politicians I've ever met, but her advisers have stripped what personality she has, hiding it from the public. Some of that may be a product of her team's legendary paranoia, somewhat understandable given the knives out for her. But what remains is a heartless, passionless machine, surrounded by the very people who ground down the activist base in the 1990s and have continued to hold the party's grassroots in utter contempt. The operation is rudderless, without any sign of significant leadership. And to top it off, a sizable number of Democrats don't think she could win a general election, anyway.

Take this in conjunction with the comments of blueflorida highlighted by Chris Bowers:


This has been described before many times but to put it in the simplest (Brooks-ian)terms: there are the children of 1972, the children of 1992, and the children of 2000. The children of '72 transformed the country culturally but were inept at the nuts-and-bolts of electoral politics and were oblivious of a conservative counter-revolution happening in less-urban parts of the country. They have been stuck in the attic by the children of 1992 for about 20 years, but were let out (with conditions) by the children of 2000.

The children of 1992 have nothing but contempt for the children of 1972, holding them responsible for the catastrophic presidential defeats of '68, '72, '80, '84, and '88. They currently dominate the party leadership and they hold as articles of faith the perception that modern America is basically a center-right nation that only votes for Dems if Dems confine their progressive message to pocketbook topics and embrace a basically conservative posture on crime and national security issues.

We've spent more than six years lambasting George W. Bush for not only being an incompentent, but surrounding himself with incompetents.  Even if you take the Atrios line of liking Hillary but hating the people she surrounds herself with, you're left with a potential administration filled with retreads and apologists for Bill Clinton's presidency.

Earlier, Chris Bowers wrote back in February:


Hillary Clinton is extremely popular among the Democratic rank and file. The only way to defeat her is to have someone who is a more preferable choice, not someone who is merely an acceptable alternative. Democrats overwhelmingly like Clinton, and as such are only going to turn to other candidates they like even more, not other candidates they dislike less.

Bowers concludes that Obama and Edwards must build each other up, rather than tear each other down, but he misses the boat.  Obama and Edwards must tear Hillary Clinton down to have a chance.  And the first to fire a strong salvo at Hillary Clinton will have a chance to dominate political news converage.

And here in front of us is the Rubicon.  Once crossed, there is no turning back.  Its crossing can be delayed, but it has to be crossed inevitably if one seeks the prize.  At some point in time, the "Anyone But Hillary" crowd must go on offensive, even if their chosen candidate or candidates do not.  And in doing so, they should strongly consider throwing overboard the triangulating legacy of Bill Clinton and the "generation of '92".  The Clinton years were not a great time for the Democratic Party and their mediocrity seems favorable only when placed next to the stunningly flawed Bush administration we have now.  But (barring a spectacular and fortuitous collapse) no one is going to overtake Hillary Clinton without taking her down.



Display:


Criticize vs. Attack (none / 0)

Can I say that I don't want Hillary to be the nominee because I don't like her policies and rhetoric? If the point of new-style pro-democratic-unity positive campaigning is to not tear each other down and come out of the primary process with the strongest, best, most widely respected candidate; is criticism still fair game?

All of the candidates have their flaws, and no matter the nominee we're going to have to deal constructively with that.


Start Running Better Polls
by bolson on Tue May 08, 2007 at 12:07:26 AM EST

We Need a 2-Way Race by July (none / 0)

Hillary Clinton is not going away on her own -- you're right about that. Her numbers may well slide
over the next several months, as some believe, but she is not going away. She and her strongest
supporters already have way too much invested for that -- and I don't mean just money.

Here's the deal, though. You write that "no one is going to overtake Hillary Clinton without taking
her down." But the flip side of that same coin is that only one of the other candidates can overtake
Clinton by taking her down.

Which is to say: The Democratic primary electorate cannot focus on a 3-way race.
Democratic voters need a clear choice between this one and that one. And the sooner
we get to a 2-way race, the better.
Were it not for two things -- that (1) Clinton is here for the
duration, and that (2) February 5 has the strong potential to produce the nominee -- there would not
be the same urgency on this. But that's the dynamic we have.

I strongly support Obama, and I would be very proud to vote for Edwards. But in strictly political terms,
an Obama v. Clinton or Edwards v. Clinton primary would be better for either of these worthy candidates.
Two reasons: (1) Clinton is the better villain, and (2) Clinton is the better prep for any Republican opponent
in the general.

This means, I believe, that Edwards should withdraw within 2 months or so, leaving a 2-way race
for the Democratic nomination between Obama and Clinton.
When Edwards decides to withdraw,
Obama and Edwards should negotiate an endorsement that enables Edwards to assure his supporters that
Obama will fight for issues that have been unique to the Edwards campaign (poverty, labor issues, rural
issues). At his withdrawal announcement, Edwards should endorse Obama.

Let me be clear. Obama and Edwards should strategically coordinate this transition, based on their
shared conviction that it is crucial that the country be given the opportunity to elect not only a Democrat
but the right Democrat. They should leverage their two constituencies as a de facto coalition capable of
winning both the Democratic nomination and the general election.

Only by withdrawing and releasing his supporters to Obama in July can Edwards give his
supporters the time they need to claim Obama as their own
-- i.e., well enough in advance of
the fall debates and the early primaries for their support of Obama to be reflected in polls and reported
by the media as the kind of groundswell that creates the momentum Obama will need to seal the
nomination in February.

No doubt, Edwards supporters will take exception to such suggestions, here in May 2007. But please
do not underestimate what any Democratic candidate will need in August 2007 to beat
Hillary Clinton in February 2008:
All the available money. All the available Democratic
support (among likely primary/caucus voters and in general). All the available favorable media.
All the available momentum.

Everything that candidate needs, he will need three months from now.

Truly, there is much less time than you think. Which means that three candidates in the
top tier is a luxury we can't afford for much longer.


by horizonr on Tue May 08, 2007 at 03:02:04 AM EST

Oh, and Obama should back Edwards (none / 0)

If a scenerio like the one you suggest is to be played out, Obama should release his supporters to Edwards.

What state by state primary polling that I have seen suggests that by the time South Carolina is in the books, Edwards could possibly have one win and two seconds.   Obama could very well have only one second, and three third place finishes at that point.

Edwards is shaping up to be the stronger of two challengers in the early contests.


by dpANDREWS on Tue May 08, 2007 at 08:44:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I have a problem with this statement (none / 0)

"...from the Daily Kos straw poll that she is not an exciting candidate for a good segment of the Democratic Party."

A good segment?   How about a small segment?  

I doubt very much that D.K. represents that wide a swath of the Democratic Party.  


by dpANDREWS on Tue May 08, 2007 at 08:40:49 AM EST


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